A Fledgeling On Steroids

Exhibit 1

KUALA LUMPUR, March 2 (Bernama) -- Malaysia Airports Holding Berhad (MAHB) can take legal action against AirAsia to recover airport tax amounting to RM99,881,491 owed by the low-cost-carrier to MAHB as of Jan 31, the Dewan Rakyat was told today.

Revert : Probably they do not enough moolah to do the necessary as this (exhibit 2)will become increasingly common??

Exhibit 2
AirAsia reported a 2008 net loss of MYR471.7 million ($128.3 million), reversed from a MYR697.6 million profit in 2007, but insisted its 2009 outlook is strong because its low-fare model is attracting new traffic and it has "unwound" fuel hedges that weighed down second-half earnings.
The third and fourth quarters of 2008 marked the LCC's first unprofitable reporting periods since it went public in 2004, but it blamed the losses on "exceptional charges" related to fuel hedging and aircraft financing that it said will not apply going forward. CEO Tony Fernandes explained that the company made the "bold decision" of unwinding remaining fuel hedges and interest rate swaps related to aircraft term loans, taking charges that hurt 2008 earnings but allowed it to "begin 2009 with a substantially clean balance sheet."
He added, "Many of our competitors have reported passenger traffic decline. Conversely, we continue to enjoy sustained traffic growth as more passengers switch from the legacy carriers to our premium low-cost services."

He projected passenger growth of 15%-20% this year, with most new capacity "injected to international destinations such as Singapore, India, Bangladesh and China."

Full-year revenue rose 36.8% to MYR2.64 billion while expenses jumped 46.3% to MYR1.96 billion, producing operating income of MYR684.1 million, up 15.1% from MYR594.1 million in 2007.
Traffic increased 21% to 13.49 billion RPKs on a 29% lift in capacity to 18.72 billion ASKs, producing a load factor of 75.4%, down 3.2 points. RASK rose 10% to 4.23 US cents while CASK fell 9% to 3.49 US cents. CASK excluding fuel dropped 21% to 1.27 US cents.

Revert: Mmmm...load factor down while Revenue per Available Seat Kilometer is up and Cost per Available Seat Kilometer declined reflecting improving efficiencies and reducing overhead costs (declining fuel prices being the big ticket item)....However, on the horizon looms this (exhibit 3) :


Exhibit 3
IATA said the global airline industry lost up to $8 billion in 2008, $3 billion higher than its previous estimates, stating that a "larger than expected" $4 billion fourth-quarter loss owing to the recession and fuel hedging losses weighed down full-year results.

In a "financial health monitor" released yesterday, IATA said, "large losses [are] now being reported by Asian and European airlines. . .airlines are now losing money at the operating level." It said passenger traffic declined 5.6% year-over-year in January after growing just 1.6% for full-year 2008 and that cargo traffic was down 23.2% year-over-year that month. Cargo traffic contracted 4% for full-year 2008, including a 22.6% year-over-year plunge in December that DG and CEO Giovanni Bisignani described as "unprecedented and shocking" (ATWOnline, Feb. 2).

With demand down, airlines put another 73 aircraft in storage and retired 26 in January, IATA said, noting that with 93 new aircraft joining the global fleet during the month the overall fleet shrank by six. "Capacity is being cut even more by reductions in aircraft utilization by frequency and destination cuts," it said.
January capacity was down 2% year-over-year including a 4.3% Asia/Pacific cut, 3.6% decrease in Europe and 2.6% decline in the US. "Airlines are responding to the slump in demand by trying to shrink capacity to match," IATA said. "So far, with the exception of the US domestic markets, they have been unsuccessful."

Revert : But then optimism springs eternal...doesn't it at a time when everyone and everything will fly literally as the positive vibes (exhibit 4) below attests:

Exhibit 4
AIRASIA Bhd, Southeast Asia’s biggest discount airline, plans to raise as much as RM2.1 billion (US$566 million) to expand its fleet this year as it adds new routes.The airline plans to add “at least 15 new routes” and is in talks to fly to Indian cities including Kolkata, Bangalore and Mumbai, it said today in an e-mailed statement.The Malaysian company will receive 14 new Airbus SAS A320 aircraft while retiring nine Boeing Co 737-300 airplanes this year, increasing its fleet to 80 aircraft from 75, it said.The company, which had a net loss of RM176.9 million in the three months ended December 31, said last month it had obtained financing from the investment banking unit of Barclays Plc for the new Airbus aircraft. - Bloomberg

Revert: Once a growing bird overfeeds itself on steroids and drops from the sky like a stone..wonder who is going to pick up the pieces and clean up the mess ???

Buffalo: Lets say people will still fly albeit on a downgraded budget but instead of traveling in large groups they go in smaller groups and the previously low end budgetie who used to pack LCCTs dissappears as a species simply because pangs of hunger have crippled the daredevilry to fly...then what? Moooooooooooooo