Wednesday, April 22, 2009

The World on the Ropes

Just been on the IMF website who have compiled a comprehensive report onthe crisis while the ticker is trending upwards in Wall Street ,,, does not make pretty reading but then enjoy it with a pinch of salt especially as the IMF has been proven wrong by Dr M once before.But this time,the Empire strikes back??.

World Economic Outlook, April 2009
Prepared by Marco E. Terrones, Alasdair Scott and Prakash Kannan

Key Points
• Recessions associated with financial crises tend to be severe. Recoveries from such recessions are typically slow. If such recessions are globally synchronized then they tend to last even longer and be followed by recoveries that are even weaker.

• Countercyclical policies can be helpful in ending recessions and strengthening recoveries. In particular, expansionary fiscal policies seem particularly effective. Monetary policy can help shorten such recessions, but is less effective than usual.

• These findings suggest that the current recession is likely to be unusually long and severe, and the recovery sluggish. However, strong countercyclical policy action, combined with action to restore confidence in the financial sector, could improve prospects for recovery.

For dessert, a scoop of spine chilling ice-cream but then an estimated US$4 trillion loss is small change in this era of Quantitative Easing, sexy term for printing money, isn't it?

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