Parl /DUNcode
044/10
Seberang Jaya
22,790
044/11
Permatang Pasir
20,289
Permatang Pasir
20,289
044/12
Penanti
15,380
Total
58,459
source : MALVU blogspot
In the last by-elections for the Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat, the results were as follows:
source : MalaysiakiniPenanti
15,380
Total
58,459
source : MALVU blogspot
In the last by-elections for the Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat, the results were as follows:
On a voter turnout of approximately 81%, Anwar won by 15700+ votes. But the focus is not on Anwar but Amin Shah who garnered 15524 votes. Let us analyse the sources of this number ( again the projections are just conjectural)
I am postulating an equal 80% turnout (actual turnout = 81+%) in all three constituencies, hence:
22790 X 0.8 = 18231
20289 x 0.8 = 16231
15421 x 0.8 = 12336
Next, by my estimates, Amin Shah garnered 45% of the vote in his stronghold of Seberang Jaya and 25% in Permatang Pasir ( a Pas redoubt) and approximately 30% Penanti ( a PKR bastion), therefore:
18231 x 0.45 = 8203
16231 x 0.25 = 4057
12336 x 0.30 = 3700
When this number is posited against the outcome for the state seat of Penanti, then it is apparent that the BN task is an uphill one even before the starters gate has been swung open.
There has been a steady diminution of support since 2004 from a winning 6195 (in 2004) to 5127 (in 2008) and roughly 3700-4200 in by-election 2008 ( note: the local rivalry between jalil and Amin was also a factor). Even in the best case scenario, I would still project Amin Shah of having garnered no more than 4500 (36.5%) of the total votes cast in Penanti for the by-election. Anyway, lets analyse the racial profile of Amin Shah’s meager haul of 3700+ ,based on certain assumptions:
Penanti = 15421 registered voters
Turnout for August Permatang Pauh by election in Penanti (according to race) :
15421 x 0.73 = 11257 x 0.80 = 9005
15421 x 0.24 = 3701 x 0.80 = 2960
15421 x 0.024 = 370 x 0.85 = 314
Total turnout according to race in Penanti = 12279* ( less about 56 from the 12336 above)
* (projections based on approximately 80% turnout)
Note: This turnout is consistent with the elections for the Penanti seat in March 2008 when approximately 12500 cast their ballots.
Now from this 12279, lets look at the voting patterns according to race. Remember my assumption is that, Amin Shah garnered approximately 30% of the votes here (with a ceiling of probably 35%).
Assumption 1 = approximately 30%
12279 x 0.30 = 3683 ( 4297 if 35% of the votes were won)
Malay vote : 9005 x 0.30 = 2701
Chinese vote : 3701 x 0.25 = 925
Indian vote 314 x 0.30 = 94
Assumption 2 = approximately 35%
12279 x 0.35% = 4297
Malay vote = 9005 x 0.35 = 3151
Chinese vote = 3701 x 0.28 = 1036
Indian vote = 314 x 0.37 = 116
Comments: Either way, the diminution of support in Penanti is indicative of the overall shrinking of support in Permatang Pauh for BN, affirming the view that this is essentially a ‘black’ area . In short, discretion being the better half of valour should hold sway in any decision making for the implications of hurtling headlong into defeat in an opposition fortress is not a sign of heroic valour but rather a silly case of stuffing defeat into the jaws of victory for it to chew upon and spit out. I can already see the masthead “ Malay support still with PR” on the horizon for they surely need that fillip badly now to reassure the wavering faithful…
Revert : Better to save the money and spend it on projects worthwhile for the Pribumis. A sure-fire winning investment in the long term............
No comments:
Post a Comment