Monday, April 13, 2009

More Grounds for a Temblor

source : Malaysian Insider

Bukit Selambau

Racial Profile:M= 17,698 C=7,371 I= 10,071 Total= 35,140

Voter Turnout: 70.25% or 24687 ( 25798 in 2008: a reduction of 1111 votes)

Breakdown of Turnout and Votes for BN
Malay = 17698 x 0.65 = 11503 x 0.55 = 6326
Chinese = 7371 x 0.65 = 4791 x 0.30 = 1437
Indian = 10071 x 0.83 = 8358 x 0.20 = 2507
Total BN vote = 10270 ( actual = 10229)

General Observations: The total number who turned out to cast their ballots diminished by 1,111 votes. Both BN and Pakatan lost roughly 600 votes each which adds up to 1200 votes. 1326 votes were shared amongst the 13 independents of which the three highest were polled by ex-Umno men. The number of spoilt ballots cast were drastically reduced from the 1694 cast in 2008. Malay turnout was unusually low.

Two things emerge:
1. If many of the absentees had turned up, the probability of an increment in the BN haul would have been better (I suspect 80% who didn’t turn up were Malay BNites). This added with the Malay votes cast for the three independent candidates would have easily turned defeat into victory provided a Malay/Muslim candidate had stood as the candidate for BN. Lets assume the 1000+ indie votes were in actuality meant for the BN + 60% of the absentee ballots were destined for BN (1111 x 0.70= 777). The net effect would have transformed an hitherto comfortable PR victory into a wafer thin majority of 600+ which might have been overturned with a higher Malay voter turnout.

2. PR lost the Malay vote but romped home by riding on Chingkie and Hindulen support. No surprises there but the fact that Pr could garner almost 70% of the Chingkie vote bank and 80% of the hindulen vote tranche is indicative of the fact that MIC as a factor in BS is all but gone.
In fact, the above analysis just reinforces my thesis that Malaysia is split down a racial/religious fault-line as the outcome in BS is a more or less a mirror image of the outcome in BG. This brings us to the ultimate question , what can BN do in these uncharted waters? I will consider the options available in my next post, inshaallah.

Revert: The Chingkie and Hindulen have all but abrogated the "Social Contract" and the terms of the 1957 Constitution…..

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