Monday, April 13, 2009

A Temblor on the Horizon?

Caveat : I am analyzing this outcome as a neutral and disinterested observer as I still firmly aver that democracy is inimical to Islamic teachings. However, given the real politik prevailing in Malaysia, it is still important to keep an eye on these developments as every jihadi is wont to do.

Source : Malaysian Insider

Bukit Gantang

Racial Composition of Electorate

M = 35232 (63.4%)
C = 14920 (26.9%)
I = 5410 (9.7%)

Total : 55,562 voters

Turnout : 41626 (74.9%)

M = 35232 X 0.75 = 26424 x 0.65 = 17175

C = 14920 x 0.75 = 11190 x 0.10 = 1119* ( assumption based on blog feedback)

I = 5410 x 0.75 = 4057 x 0.20 = 811

Total Polled by BN = 19105 (actual :19071).

* Let’s say the % of Chinese votes were 20.5 % for BN, then the respective racial breakdowns would plausibly be ( M= 26424 x 0.605 = 15986 + C = 11190 x 0.205 = 2293 + I= 4057 x 0.19 = 771 ; Total votes = 15986 + 2293 + 771 = 19050 votes ( actual 19071)


1. Whatever the permutations, the following is crystal clear : Approximately 60% of the Malays voted for BN ; Roughly 20% of the Chinese voted for the BN and 19% of Indian voters cast the ballots for the BN. In terms of percentage, an overwhelming 83% (15986 / 19071) of the BN haul constituted of Malay votes. In contrast, the total non-Malay constituted approximately 55% of PR’s total votes. In short, what we are witnessing here is the emergence of racial fault-line demarcating the Malay and the Non-Malay.

2. The Chinese and the Indian electorate have comprehensively abandoned the BN platform. By extension, the political ramification of this outright outcome is that it calls into question the Chinese and Indian commitments to the Social contract and the provisions regarding the special rights of Malays as enshrined in the Constitution. In contrast, the Malay vote is still solidly behind the BN. (a trend also affirmed at KT and in Bukit Selambau * as we will see later). In fact 61% of the Malay electorate who turned up polled for the BN candidate. If this trend is extrapolated nationwide, I foresee UMNO winning between 85-90 seats in the peninsular.

3. This snub coming on the heels of the launch of the 1Malaysia initiative effectively signals the end of the give and take spirit that has prevailed in the local political setting since the dark days of 1969. In fact, this troubling fracture is a throwback to the 1963- May 1969 era of Malaysian politics, an era replete with shows of racial supremacy, religious bigotry and other shenanigans masterminded and effected…yes, you guessed it, by an earlier batch of charlatans (a hodgepodge mix of Communists/Socialists and other left wing crackpots, racist bigots, religious zealots) masquerading under the Malaysia for Malaysians banner ( echoes of Bangsa Malaysia…..isnt it?)

I will touch about this with the relevant historical facts after my next post about Bukit Selambau and will outline several strategies that will strengthen the Malay/Muslim polity, inshaallah.

Revert : Certain bangsats never seem to learn….don’t they…

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